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CNBC
Oct 9, 2012 4:00am EDT
the global economy to 3.3% in 2012. that forecast also downgraded to 3.6% for 2013. of course there are two topics weighing heavily on the 15,000 can delegates. one is the global slowdown and the second is the crisis in the eurozone. i asked the chief economist at the fund about whether or not spain needs a bailout. >> at this stage the interest rates that they face are low. the question is are the interest rates low because investors expect spain to ask for a program, in which case spain will have to ask for one, or are they low because spain is doing all the right things and investors are not worried. so spain, if you look at what they're doing, they're taking all kinds of fiscal measure which is are courageous. so they're doing the right thing no question. >> also noticeable in this economic outlook is the downgrade in the forecasts to some of the key emerging economies. for example brazil and india. the fund says brazil's economy will grow at a slower pace than the united states and lowered outlook to below 5%. i had a chance to speak about you who he feels the indian economy wa
CNBC
Oct 8, 2012 3:00pm EDT
. he says the world economy may be down for the count. that prognosis by brookings called tiger standing for tracking indice for global economic recovery. political conflict, lack of fiscal decision-making are two of the key reasons for the dire warning. >> how does this factor into the market? in today's "closing bell exchange," cornell university professor and senior fellow at brookings, which authored that very study. also with us are savita from merrill lynch. very strong language in the report, global economic recovery hits the ropes but you do make the point that the u.s. certainly looks better than everyone else. so, the key question is, can the u.s. avoid catching the world's cold? >> that's a literal statement. the u.s. looks better than other xhis in the world but it's not a great spot to be in. with the amount of policy and political uncertainty, the u.s. -- even the u.s. recovery staying strong is certainly not a sure thing. they'll be buffeted by headwinds from abroad because china and india are not doing well. even u.s. has a rocky road ahead. >> you go through nea
CNBC
Oct 12, 2012 3:00pm EDT
lower outlays resulting in part from a stronger economy. also, a statement from treasury secretary tim geithner accompanying the release of these budget details. quote, the president has put forward a balanced proposal to further strengthen the economy and reduce the country's future deficits. it's time for congress to act on those necessary steps to it help sustain economic growth for years to come. of course, to add the fuel to the budget and deficit debate, fiscal cliff, and obviously ahead of next week's all-important debate between president obama and mitt romney. back to you guys. >> it's going to be fodder for our next conversation, i'm thinking. >> absolutely. right now it's not yet moving the markets if it's going to do that at all. >> michael, we were talking earlier that there are signals you see in this market which suggest a correction is coming. tell us what they are. is it the pattern we've seen this week? are some of the fundamentals behind it? in other words, that fight coming over the fiscal cliff related to the news that hampton was just give us. >> i think forget ab
CNBC
Oct 11, 2012 10:30pm EDT
house? the choice is clear. a stagnant economy that promotes more government dependency or a dynamic growing economy that promotes opportunity and jobs. mitt romney and i will not duck the tough issues. and we will not blame others for the next four years, we will take responsibility and we will not try to replace our founding principles, we will reapply our founding principles. the choice is clear, and the choice rests with you, and we ask you for your vote. thank you. >> and thank you both again. thank you very much. this concludes the vice-presidential debate. please tune in next tuesday for the second presidential debate at hoff stster university in no carolina. i'm martha rad datdatz of "abc news." i hope all of you go to the polls. have a good evening. >> there you have it. that's the conclusion of the one and only vice-presidential debate and 2012 election. both of these gentleman, vice president joe biden and republican paul ryan had tall orders, things they had to accomplish here. you can argue both of them did get that mission accomplished. you did hear a lot of specifics o
CNBC
Oct 11, 2012 4:00am EDT
greece more time. >> central banks take action on slowing grow global growth. economy with waiting demand. >>> plus the stakes have been raised for tonight's debate. new polls show the race for the white house has tightened. >>> welcome. it's thursday here on "worldwide exchange" and spain now holding above junk status. >> raising interesting questions as we'll discuss later in the program about investors' ability to maintain exposure to the sovereign. >> s&p move was expected, but it came after the euro group meeting. people now looking to moody's. if spain goes to junk, what does it mean for corporates. >> how many companies have we seen that are big, healthy companies being penalized and may not being able to have people invest in them because their rating is linked to the sovereigns rating. so whether they start to try to detach those or just the pressure it puts on those companies to perhaps look elsewhere. >> speaking to cnbc earlier, blamed the move on the pressure on spain, but more important was the backtracking on using esm to directly capitalize the banks. >> the perceiv
CNBC
Oct 7, 2012 7:30pm EDT
unemployment rate fell to 7.8%. the best number since january of '09. the economy created 114,000 new jobs for the month in line with what economists were looking for and job creation numbers for the two previous months also revised upward. after a mixed start to the week the markets bounced back after positive economic data and what some called a romney rally following the presidential debate. the market was mixed, though, on friday. the auto sales are powering on an annualized basis, auto sales hit 15 million units, the best number since march of '08. gm and ford posted flat numbers but chrysler, toyota and volkswagen were strong. >>> a major milestone for facebook. the social network surpassed the 1 billion user mark for the month of september. ceo mark zuckerberg made the announcement this week. the company stock is down from its share price earlier this year. >>> there's no such thing as a foolish question about money, the markets or the economy. so says my next guest tom gardner, ceo of "the motley fool." tom, good to see you, thank you for joining us. >> good to see you, maria.
CNBC
Oct 11, 2012 7:00pm EDT
they will take taxes from 18.5% of the economy under normal circumstances, the historical average for the last 30, 40 years, to 21%. that over a decade is a $5 trillion tax increase. they tend not to talk about it, but it's the most important thing in simpson/bowles, a $5 trillion tax increase. there is no room for tax reform because they take all that lovely money, and they spend it. >> look, okay, there's tax rates and tax revenues. now a couple of things, tax rates, marginal rates are different from tax revenues. revenues can come from growth, from capped deductions. i just want to ask you, grover, do you support mitt romney's plan which would lower the rates, put a strict limit on the dollars of tax deductions and increase the economic growth rate? do you support romney? >> well, romney's plan is revenue neutral. he's made a commitment to the american people not to have a net tax increase. that's a great plan. obama wants higher tax rates, and schumer, the leader in the senate, made that clear as well, so it's between romney wanting to cut your tax rates and obama wanting to i
CNBC
Oct 10, 2012 4:00pm EDT
market and the reality of the economy is the spread is very wide. anticipation of the uncertainty. you know, we've been talking for weeks, months, the fiscal cliff. here's the correction. i'll go along with it. yes, i think market's going to work its way lower. >> dan, are you nervous that all four of you agree and are nervous? >> i'm not really that nervous. >> when we get 5% corrections, they're over and done with before we have a chance to act on it. if you get a 5, even 7% correction, you want to use that opportunity to buy stocks that may be down 8 to 9%, 10%, perhaps. >> what are you going to buy here, david? >> i'll give you a few names. on a smaller cap site, itt, which is a spinout. about a year ago they spun out their defense and water business. i think the management is very shareholder driven. the yield is compelling, and they're going to grow the yield. another name that looks compelling to me is the housing market continues to improve. lowe's, very shareholder driven. valuation at a discount to home depot. i think there's a couple ideas. >> itt as a small cap. harold jean
CNBC
Oct 8, 2012 6:00am EDT
the 6th know what they feel about the economy already. they're living it every day. so because there's a headline that says 7.8, it's a talking point, but they already know what their friends and neighbors are doing. >> when do we find out how romney is fun raising compared to that 180 million or whatever? >> i think if it was so par with obama's, we would have heard already. i think it's probably behind. >> you don't hear that that's unbecoming to have so much money to spend. just don't hear -- it's alway s the republicans. >> it's not decided by money. nice to have, but there is saturation information for the small number of swing voters. and even if obama beat romney by 20, 30 million, that won't make the difference. obama will have to improve his performance in the debates. >> a gallup poll has romney and obama tied at 47% each. >> that's early for gallup. >> right here. >> their daily track comes out at 1:00, but this could be a different mole. i'm not aware of this new poll. >> this is one they took afterwards. it's just -- >> i'm hearing about it for the first time. >> i
CNBC
Oct 8, 2012 12:00pm EDT
by rising market. credit infused and u.s. economy shows signs of life. after two big acquisitions this year analysts say capital one's outlook should be clearing up and discover is expanding in to the payment space. two major players in that space mastercard and visa off all time highs but franchise names to own. revenue from credit card transactions moving up thanks to higher volumes and larger than average purchases. fserve growing. >> secular move in using cash instead of credit card. they went through new regulations. so, you know, the fundamentals are very strong. they are not terribly expensive. >> joe give me the best play. mastercard or visa or american express or discover. >> i like all of the above. throw in capital. >> it's not too late to jump in. >> not too late to jump in. capital one throw into the mix. fundamentals are turning there also. i think there's a lot of money own the sidelines in the financials that's pointed particularly in that direction, is going stay there. >> stephanie? >> that quarter was very strong last week and i think that the fact it's trading
CNBC
Oct 8, 2012 4:00am EDT
the near term, the domestic economy and the overall gdp numbers will still remain weak in china because of the weakness in manufacturing and exports. but overall, we still think there is a good chance for the chinese economy to rebound in the first half of 2013 and also we expect china to solve the la soft land. >> what is the definition of a soft land in terms of numbers for you? >> well, i would say china would likely retain growth and see the growth number rebound from there in the first half of 2013. more than like 8% or slightly above it. >> what does that mean for the chinese stock market? it's been a big under performer. hoard a week off. hasn't been tell already today. so what happens the rest of the fourth quarter with that economic backdrop? >> fourth quarter, first day of the quarter is not doing too well of a taker week long vacation despite strength in the overseas markets. i think that's because the market is still digesting the slowdown in macro numbers as well as slow down in earnings growth. but i will say that the market is above defined bottoms. fourth quarter
CNBC
Oct 8, 2012 9:00am EDT
economy getting even worse? >> earnings season here begins tomorrow with alcoa, costco, jpmorgan highlighting the week. we'll tell you why alccoa is a tell on how earnings will go. >> more worries for apple investors. reported work stoppages at foxconn. the stock now below the 50-day moving average. >> and huawei is sparking new concerns about cyber security. >> we begin with markets around the globe under pressure on global slowdown worries. 7.7% growth in china down from a previous forecast of 8.2%. the world bank citing weak global demand due to the european crisis and a slow u.s. recovery. data from europe showing industrial output in germany fell .5% in august. lots to digest. the world bank note was interesting. what they pointed out was a lot of chinese cities that had these aggressive and ambitious spending, stimulus plans to rebuild the cities might have trouble running into funding for these projects. >> i think a lot of the data that we see today is catch-up. there's just not a lot of good news out there. the brightest spot in the economy is the united states. i think
CNBC
Oct 8, 2012 1:00pm EDT
. congress takes aim at a chinese tech company over security concerns and the slowing chinese economy also pulling down our markets. so how do you play china right now? pain at pump. gas prices in california top $5 a gallon in some places and the governor's jumping in to intervene but the question is, is that really going to do any good or is the market going to decide the price? >>> and political roulette. the key swing state of ohio making a big bet on casino gambling. brian schactman has more on the new jobs and new opportunities from cashing in on sin. >>> but first, tyler is off today so bob pisani is my partner for the army. down at the nyse. >> pleasure to be here, sue. concern about china's slowdown raised by the world bank putting pressure on the market today. europe's been closed for about 1 1/2 hours right now. china now back to us after a week off. that sector to the downside as well. most of europe was weak here today. france, spain and italy all to the downside. euro a little weak. on days when the euro is weaker, the dollar stronger. typically our markets are to the dow
CNBC
Oct 9, 2012 9:00pm EDT
sitting on it. >> companies should invest in the united states. it's still the world's biggest economy. and if companies just are going to sit on cash, they're going to lose. they're gonna lose, because only the people that are going to invest their way through this crisis are going to win. >> immelt is also supporting a tax holiday for global companies to get them to bring back home more than $1 trillion in profits they're keeping overseas. he says businesses would start hiring, even though they didn't when a tax holiday was tried in 2004. >> when it happened last time, it didn't. >> right. >> so there's plenty of evidence that says that i'm not right about that. in other words, do i know how many jobs it's going to create? i don't. but it can't intellectually be any good to anybody to have $1.2 trillion outside the u.s. >> shouldn't american corporations--don't they have some kind of civic responsibility to create jobs? no? >> my name is not above the door. i work for investors. investors want to see us grow earnings and cash flow. they want to see us be competitive. they want to see
CNBC
Oct 11, 2012 3:00pm EDT
to concentrate on growth, maybe in the recovering economy, maybe a romney presidency. whatever you want to say. you could look at consumer discretionary names. they should do wonderful, especially with fed accommodation. history has shown us previous times, consumer discretionary stocks did exceptionally well. overall the stock market should do great next year. you can look at the fed argument. you can look at fundamental analysis. both sides support a bullish signal. >> so the four down days we've had here, the five, you see this as a buying opportunity? >> absolutely. build up the war chest. a great entry point into equities. >> debra, you're right in there with him, aren't you? >> absolutely. it pains me to know how many people have missed this rally, that they pulled so much money out of equity funds. the people that stayed in equity funds have gone into the dividend funds. they've gone into the index funds. it breaks your heart to see that so many people have left so many profits on the table. >> rick santelli, were you surprised at the strength of the euro, even after the dow
CNBC
Oct 13, 2012 4:00am EDT
global economy. secular growth stories will continue to make money, and the world economy smashes into a retaining wall. you don't stop taking life- saving medicine because of a recession. bottom line, the next 2 1/2 months, gilead and alex i don't know -- alexion are going higher, and every manager wants to show they own what's hot and what's not is not in their portfolio. you can pick these stocks up, and frankly between now and year ends on any weakness. and i speak to elizabeth in florida. elizabeth. >> caller: hey, cramer, solid growth offset concerns over the euro, do you see a 20/20 buy or a glaring pass with luzotica. >> on "60 minutes" this piece came on, and they did an amazing piece. and i said everybody in the world knows everything about luzotica, what value can i have? when everyone knows everything, it's too late to own. need a dose of year-ends momentum, amazon, google, visa ulta, alexion, vista, master card, and gilead. don't move, the lightning round minutes away. >>> coming up, "mad money" at the movies. cramer has always had a certain theatrical flare and he sh
CNBC
Oct 11, 2012 4:00pm EDT
overall economy? >> i think you're beginning to see hints of that. it doesn't mean it's all clear. the reality that we had today, for example, was really just everybody's perception that the real estate market is just going to start getting better and it's an upward swing from there. >> two premier names in the industry there in century 21 and caldwell banker. we were talking during the break, you're watching also so-called secondary ipos, those companies already public that are issuing new shares to the market. those have done very well as well. >> bill, i got it tell you, there has been such a resurgence in the filings of secondaries and pricings. it's on a five to one basis versus the regular ipos. our business is now almost completely focused on what happens between 4:00 and 5:30 when these deals come out. huge cash available. these deals are working. it's another thing to address michelle's issue. the underwriters have changed from the facebook times where they're pandering to the issuer. now they're worried about the investor. these discounts are getting a heavy -- excuse me, the
CNBC
Oct 11, 2012 6:00am EDT
many they're planning on spending this holiday season? >> 7 in 10 consumers feel like the economy is abysmal. only 3% felt like things were going well. and one in four american parents felt like they weren't going to be able to buy everything for their kids that they wanted this year, which is depressing. the other thing that's interesting, national retail federation came out with a study saying spending will only be up at around 4%, and that's at around $600 for a family. so don't expect big increase in spending this year. >> cotter, thank you very much. appreciate your time. >> thank you. >>> coming up in just a bit, the s&p is coming off four straight days of losses. we'll ask scott nations in the bulls can turn that trend. but first as we head to a break tar take a look at yesterday's winners and losers. [ male announcer ] the 2013 smart comes with 8 airbags, a crash management system and the world's only tridion safety cell which can withstand over three and a half tons. small in size. big on safety. hey, it's sandra -- from accounting. peter. i can see that you're busy... but y
CNBC
Oct 12, 2012 12:00pm EDT
. you have big worries about what's taking place in the economies of china and europe, and then you have the fiscal cliff here at home, right? >> markets and economies are not well aligned, as you know, and as the estimates have been cut $100 or more was never reflected in the stock market. so what you've seen is a lessening of negative revisions that second derivative, the rate of change in the change and that's what really drove the market in q1 and what's driven it since june 1. >> how much does the election and the result that would deem to be more favorable for the markets? how does that factor in to this discussion of where the markets are going to go? are you betting on a romney win and that's why you have 1600? >> actually the fed's policies, a fired bernanke platform would be negative for the market. we need large deficits to support profits until the private sector starts to contribute a little bit more on the investment side particularly housing. so in effect, we're in a transition politically, the europeans are making some decisions on spain, and greece and in china they
CNBC
Oct 9, 2012 12:00pm EDT
and the technicals together. >> also it shows that you can't ignore the fundamentals of the economy. it shows that however much you do love this company and however strong corporate balance sheets are, you still have a certain amount of uncertainty and in this environment voss will lock in profits and take time to relax and reassess the environment. you have elections, fiscal cliff, the eurozone uncertainty and in that type of environment it is a case of i know things are strong when i get out and look to get back in later on. >> josh brown, what do you do with apple here? do you use the pullback as substantial as it has been, 10% from a peak at the end of september? do you use it as a buying opportunity or a flag in your face that says i have got real reason to worry here? >> i would caution anyone who is booking a funeral home for the final passage of the apple story. i think that's a little premature. technically speaking, we have big volume coming to google and apple and it is the same funds that own both these stocks. nobody should be surprised there is a dip at the beginning o
CNBC
Oct 9, 2012 7:00pm EDT
much agree that we need a housing market at the bottom of this economy if we are going to have a foundation. >> jarod. >> stephen -- >> let's not talk over each other. listen. >> jarod i'll give you the last word. >> because home prices are beginning to appreciate. we have under a million under wat water borrowers and they are able to refinance. this is able to kill that now would be a huge error. >> i want to see the short sales continue. that is all i want to see. the rest of it we have made a complete mess of it. and i fear we are going to make a mess out of the fha. it could go bankrupt before this is over. thank you both. coming up. we have the five year anniversary of the all time highs in the stock markets. five years ago today the how long will it take to get back to those highs? i think it could happen before year-end and you will hear why. later, tens of thousands of protesters fill the streets and nazi clad crowns waving swastikas. and i must say it will work in housing like every place else. stay with us. two years ago, the people of bp made a commitment to the gulf.
CNBC
Oct 8, 2012 7:00pm EDT
. i'm not an eternal optimist. i think this is all perfectly fair. >> is the economy getting worse? is it getting worse? >> yes, yes, yes. it's getting worse. absolutely getting worse. >> 7.8%. >> look, worldwide, larry, the velocity of money is dead. >> what does that mean in. >> there's no turnover. this unemployment number that the optimists hailed at great at 7.8% lifted by part-time workers. >> no one said it's great. this is important to both of you since you are both in this camp with respect to the federal reserve. you can make the case -- i don't want to get too wonky and bore our viewers, but you can make the case that the federal reserve by doing what it's doing is simply offsetting the decline in monetary velocity. if they hadn't done this, but -- >> you're not fooling corporations, though. there's no capital formation. that's why no one is hired. the male participation rate in the labor force is the lowest since 1948. >> would it be high fehr the federal reserve -- >> yes. absolutely. >> we had a strong dollar since the plaza accord in '85. >> well, look aat athe job -
CNBC
Oct 10, 2012 3:00pm EDT
regardless of who wins the election or controls congress is quite clear that the economy will have to suffer potentially from higher taxes and indeed reduced government spending. >> rick santelli, you heard that whole list of reasons. is that why we saw this ten-year auction today? people gobbling up ten-year government debt at these extremely low yields because they think they're not going to get much better elsewhere? sounds like people don't think there's a lot of growth coming. >> i think there's a little bit of truth in all of it. i'll bring up another point. i think october, a lot of mutual funds ahave the end of their fiscal year. it's been a good run for stocks. the spread between what the stock market is telling us and the economy is pretty wide. the election, depending how it turns out, could have a lot of implications. to me, it makes perfect sense the closer we get to the end of the year, the closer we get to november, people are going to be lightening up. it all makes sense. >> yeah, and mandy, you were highlighting earlier oil is lower, gold is lower. a lot of the bas
CNBC
Oct 9, 2012 9:00am EDT
you're looking at what the economy is going to do. >> one of the things alcoa has been able to do, particularly with the ceo, is take aluminum and replace a lot of other different metals, whether it be steel in cars because it's much lighter and therefore you use less gasoline. airplanes because again it produces the gasoline use. by the way, it does construct electricity, maybe not as sufficiently in copper but it is used in china. when you look at a can, you know it is recycled over and over again. the skin of an apple ipad, i mean, aluminum has become the fundament. aluminum has been hit by football hedge funds and we have chinese people producing huge amounts of aluminum. if they would close that and let alcoa come in, then you would see a much better number from alcoa. i'm urning people not to look at the earnings per share. that is not going to be -- what you need to do when look at alcoa is look at the individual forecast that he makes. when you see him as a man of his word, this is the barometer i look at not set up by a particular group of people other than a major compan
CNBC
Oct 10, 2012 2:00pm EDT
progress. again if anything in this economy, you don't want to overstate it. the one thing i would overstate is when they say residential real estate, widespread improvement, that's about the most definitive phrase in the beige book all together. >> if somebody is in a job training program which is finally opened apparently, are they considered unemployed? >> yes. if they do not have a job or haven't worked in the past four weeks they would be unemployed. i just went through this with the bls about what constitutes -- >> you see why i'm asking that. a little dancing around the margin there. >> yeah. well -- >> what kind of dance was that, brian? that was the two-step. >> that was about as smooth as the open of street signs today. >> not smooth like the whiskey you drink, i'm sure, brian. >> your beige book today was anything but dull. i did tweet out today that beige does make it seem kind of dull and that if i was going to choose a color for my beige book, i'd make it turquoise or maybe a uniform. next time you're on -- we've created the perfect -- >> does that mean you believe it
CNBC
Oct 11, 2012 9:00pm EDT
ayatollah sees, he sees his economy being crippled. the ayatollah sees that there are 50% fewer exports of oil. he sees the currency going into the tank. he sees the economy going into the freefall and he sees the world for the first time totally united in opposition to him getting a nuclear weapon. now with regard to b.b., my friend for 39 years, the president has met with b.b. a dozen times. he spoke to b.b. netanyahu as much as he's spoken to anybody. the idea we're not -- i was in just before he went to the u.n., i was in a conference call with the president or with him talking to brj b. well over an hour and stark relief and detail of what was going on. this is a bunch of stuff. look, here's the deal -- >> what does that mean a bunch of stuff. >> it means it's simply inaccurate. >> it's irish. >> it is. >> we irish call it mularkey. >> okay. >> we call it mularkey. the secretary of defense has made it absolutely -- didn't walk anything back. we will not allow the iranians to get a nuclear weapon. what b.b. held up there was, when they get to the point where they can enrich uranium eno
CNBC
Oct 9, 2012 2:00pm EDT
this adjustment process, right now going through a change in our economy, actually having a ratcheting down of our standard of live williiliving. we have had cheap money, too much spending, too much consumption, too much borough, too much regulating, too much money printing and it has made america poorer and we will have to have an adjust n our standard of living to reflect all the damage the government has done. the longer government tries interfere with the correction, the worse it will be. >> i hear you, peter, but dave, listen to mandy's point, just get 5% more retail investors back in the stock market, what would happen? >> i'm going to tell you, you know what, we are going to see treasury yields in the ten year pop north of 18, probably 2% the end of the year a big rush to the exits, brian, as soon as a lot of these guys start pumping out bond funds, you know where they are running? right into equity funds, why we tend to think that is another reason looking at 1600 in thesome and p. >> rush for the exits. >> listen to what you are saying, peter and certainly don't wan
CNBC
Oct 10, 2012 1:00pm EDT
off the so-called fiscal cliff is an unacceptable option for the nation and the economy. >> there are all these potential outcomes. i would defy any one of you to really know what they are. therefore, it is irresponsible policy just to say, let's see. let's not see. i mean risk management says let's try to avoid that. >> dimon says he has even bigger issues with the tone in washington regarding american business right now. >> if you think that washington and business can go to war with each other and it is going to be good -- terrible error. i mean collaboration is what should happen. we should have had collaboration. we were in a crisis. every busy know wanted help to get things done and would have pulled together, worked around the clock but it became a war. now we're relitigating parts of those wars. dodd-frank and health care. it's all being relitigated. >> on the issue of collaboration, he talked about what's going on o in europe to try to stem the debt crisis. and he said, you know, the thing about europe is it has the will but not the way. we have the way. but not the will.
CNBC
Oct 8, 2012 2:00pm EDT
chinese companies, citing security risks. but are american companies and our economy facing a greater risk in going after the chinese? >>> plus, do casinos create jobs or hurt them? >>> and we take a closer look at how one company nearly has a monopoly on vision and if all of us are paying because of it. >>> hello, everybody, and welcome, all. mandy is off today. stocks are slightly down. you are looking at a live look at keene, california where the president is about to speak in minutes. gas prices in some areas in california remain above $5 a gallon. will the president address the issue? we'll find out and bring you any headlines as they cross. >>> but we begin with a question that is just annoying to every one of you out there. this is a chart of gas prices against oil. oil is the lime green line. you can see that when oil prices rise, gasoline prices also go up. quickly. however, when oil falls, gas prices fall much more slowly. why? and who's really profiting? we've got all angles this story covered for you. chris faulkner is ceo of brightling oil and gas. john kildo have, foundi
CNBC
Oct 12, 2012 4:00pm EDT
near term, we very well could. look what we talked about here. you got the economy concerns, earning concerns, election concerns, european concerns. our take is a lot of those things already baked into the cake. remember, the market's forward looking. an easy way to quantify this, look at the vix options. we've noticed a huge surge of vix call ads over the last month. what does that mean to someone listening? that's a lot of concern out there. obviously we just said a lot of concern. look at the last two years. we did this study the last two years. we saw vix call ads just like the last month. they all marked major bottoms. it has been happening for three and a half years now. we still like the market. >> show that vix chart again, if you want to. the fear indicator has been a contrary indicator. when it's up high, that usually signals a market bottom. we're at a year's low right now. >> everybody's complacent. >> doesn't that signal maybe we're closer to a top than a bottom? >> you're right, bill. you bring up a great point. the interesting thing about the vix, it actually existed b
CNBC
Oct 8, 2012 4:00pm EDT
amazing, here we are, 3 1/2 years off the trough of the economy, 3 1/2 years off the bottom of the market, up 115 some odd percent, and yet sentiment still remains extraordinarily negative, with people putting money into bond funds and taking the most overvalued asset class and taking money out of equity funds. so, the sentiment is more reflective of a market bottom, not a market top. >> hank, at the same time it looks -- >> guys, i don't think sentiment is quite as negative as the gentleman is stating. let's not focus on what they say. let's focus on what they do. last month we saw huge inflows into u.s. stock etfs. $18 billion versus $3 billion in august. in addition to which this entire rally since the end of june has been predicated on multiple expansion. that's positive sentiment. none of this has anything to do with economic growth. because the fact. matter is, it's just not there. profit growth isn't there, either. we're going to be down 2.6%. i think sentiment, actually, is way stronger than what the earnings would suggest it should be. >> scott, give us some takeaways of w
CNBC
Oct 8, 2012 11:00pm EDT
, some data point from china showed a further decline in that clearly faltering economy. then the book of negativity was tossed to europe where we saw still more dillydallying. will spain take the bailout or not? it's the european spinoff of deal or no deal. by the time we get to our market as represented by the s&p futures i saw this morning at 4:00 a.m., we were looking down substantially, aided by some world bank survey that downgraded global growth. i have to admit that when i heard the litany, my first reaction was all right, here we go again. get ready to batten down the hatches because of the chinese slow down and the european stalemate. i tweeted just that at 4:15. on jim cramer@twitter. i said here we go again, get ready. but the more i thought about it, the more i realized, are you kidding me? this again? these two headlines? are they even headlines? when they were first in the news, they were clearly disruptive forces, terrorizing ones even. they stayed that way for many, many months. but somehow the market has graduated from them as the media and the short sellers haven't.
CNBC
Oct 12, 2012 7:00pm EDT
countries that are following every wrong thing to do to run a good economy and even what they're doing now, they're raising taxes. this is like a death wish and a suicide attempt by europe and not america's fault. >> i want to ask you which is worse? the peace prize to president obama in 2009 or giving the peace prize to the european union, which is worse? >> as a gambler would say that is a pick 'em situation. >> you chicken. jimmy p. gets the best of the best. up next on "kudlow," we have a cia deception detective to see how many times my friend joe biden lied in last night's debate. "the kudlow report" coming right back. when you take a closer look... ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge of their subjects. as a result, their students achieve at a higher level. let's develop more stars in education. let's invest in our teachers... ...so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. as part of a heart healthy diet. that's true. ...but you still have to go to the g
CNBC
Oct 12, 2012 11:00pm EDT
need a strong global economy in order to keep growing. they're secular growth stories and will continue to make money even if the world economy smashes into a retaining wall wrush don't stop saying life-saving medicine because of a recession. here's the bottom line. at least for the next two and a half months gilead and alexion are going higher because they've been going higher because they're already hot stocks, and every growth-oriented portfolio manager out there wants to show their clients that they own what's hot and not -- and what's not isn't in their portfolio. that means these stocks are anointed for the fourth quarter. you can pick them up between now and year end on any weakness. next speak to elizabeth in florida. >> caller: hey, cramer. i want to know lexiotica is controlling market share and off set concerns over the euro, so does this italian monopoly seeing you a 20-20 buy or a glaring pass? >> i was over at the haley's, and we were watching "60 minutes." the first thing i did was hit up luxotica. it was a really good business story, and i felt the first thing i
CNBC
Oct 12, 2012 2:00pm EDT
point though to me, is this -- we hear from the white house that the big banks brought down the economy. they needed to be more regulated. and that we need to shrink them. okay? but yet the fed policies are doing just the opposite. >> they're not really increasing. a lot of these assets kind of get flown out throughout the market and they're securitized. it is not as if they're really shifting assets from one bank to another. it is really just churning over assets already on the balance sheets, in servicing portfolios, then being able to create some fee income out of that. >> marty, as a percentage of total bank assets, the big four are bigger now than they were pre-crisis. >> right. some of that is just parking deposits when you start looking at the deposit inflows, they've been more influential in some of the larger banks because of some of the corporate area and commercial area. so it isn't really loan growth. it's better at the large banks versus small banks. it is really you have a little bit more of that commercial deposit balance that's inflating the balance sheet to this point.
CNBC
Oct 11, 2012 11:00pm EDT
small relative to where they were not meaningful to the economy. the second is plain as the hornets' nest such as an in world war ii, the fiscal cliff. bulls say wait a second. upon further review, not a cliff, more of a hill, a negotiated descent if it even happened at all. to the bears, a 2,000 foot crevasse ever vest style made worse by the fact the race for the president is polarizing and long lasting. just wait until the tea party owns the republican party in january. want to see where the battlefield is most stark? consider for a moment the knife fight over fedex express. the bears point out this most important worldwide transport guided down not once, twice within a fortnight and painted a picture of a world in steep decline from the stem of asia to the stern of europe. the bulls arrived with a bowie knife sharpened by an analyst talking about next year being a good one and the year after that great one, taking no prisoners. the result hard to argue with a winner and they announced a secondary shortfall above a secondary pre-announcement. you would think the bears are waving
CNBC
Oct 11, 2012 6:00pm EDT
are relative to where they were it's not even meaningful to the economy. second battle, as plain as the hornet's nest or normandy beach in world war ii is the fiscal cliff. the bulls say it's not a cliff, more of a hill. a gentle and negotiated descent if it happens at all. to the bears it's one of the 2000-foot crevasses, an everest-style thing made worse by the fact the race for the presidency is so polarizing and long lasting. if you think it's difficult wait until the tea party owns the republican party in january. how about the earnings for 2013? want to see where the battlefield is most dark? consider the knife fight over fed ex press. the bears say this worldwide transport guided down not once but twice within a fortnight and posted a company in steep decline from the stem of asia to the stern of europe. the bulls have a knife shortened when they talked about next year being a good one and then a great one, taking no prisoners. hard to quibble with a winner. fedex is above where it was when it announced a shortfall but above the national negative preannouncement. you would th
CNBC
Oct 11, 2012 2:00pm EDT
of the chinese economy prompted by the chinese government, i think dry bulk shipping will come back. those stocks have been beating down to dirt-cheap levels. just recently a lot of reits, especially the mortgage agency reits have been trading below book value on concerns that dividends will be lower. i think if you pick up some of those below 95% of book value, those are cheap as well. >> if you can get them at that price. it is always about the price. neil, blankfein is a buyer of this market. should moms and dads, retail investors, be buyers of this market? i know that we've had a few down days. i know that we're off the multi-year highs but we're not far off. do you think that at these levels mom and dad should be in participateing? >> absolutely. where the money's going over a trillion dollars has going into fixed income products or bond funds in the last year-and-a-half, $3.5 billion has come out of mutual funds, equity funds. you're getting no return in the fixed income market. that's going to be really tragic is if rates do ratchet up, the individual investor is going to los
CNBC
Oct 14, 2012 7:30pm EDT
book about president obama? rare access to the president and how he handles the economy. a familiar face and concern. my conversation with matt damon about clean water around the world. >> it eeps the place where i feel i can have the biggest inl pact on people's lives. >> wall street journal report begins right now. >> the wall street journal report, now, maria bart row know. >> we'll have all that in a minute. first, bill griffith with a look at the headlines. >> here is a look at what's making news on wall street. the all important earnings season is upon us here with mixed expectations. so far, it's what companies have been delivering. jp morgan chase turned in estimates. housing turned a corner. wells fargo beat expectations but it fell short on the revenue side. alcoa lowered the forecast citing slower economy. by thursday, the dow was riding a four-day losing streak and the nasdaq had the first five-day downturn in three months. america's trade deficit widened in august as exports fell to the lowest level. $44.2 billion in august, an increase of 4.1% in july. it could be a si
CNBC
Oct 9, 2012 3:00pm EDT
talks with maria about the global economy. we'll also be the first to have yum brand results coming up. another key indicator of where this economy and market may be headed. here's where we stand now. a selloff this morning with the dow down 79 points. just kind of bumping along the bottom of the day, now at 13,506. the nasdaq is down 37 points. all these charts will look similar today. 1.2% down on the nasdaq. the s&p is down nine points at 1446. >> it's not a very happy anniversary today for the dow's all-time high. it was five years ago today the dow and s&p 500 hit their all-time closing highs. right now the dow is about 600 points away from that high-water mark. for the year, stocks are still up a solid 15%. why does it feel like it's the most hated bull market in recent memory? the numbers show that main street investors are not on the ride. they have been pulling money out of the stock mutual funds 15 of the last 16 months, putting cash into so-called safer assets, bill. we know that to be bonds. >> yes, we do. in today's "closing bell" exchange, we have larry blazer, peter b
CNBC
Oct 11, 2012 1:00pm EDT
separate animal, but on the economy as a whole. the great unleashing of capital that would happen if this problem was solved. and that's the stake here. >> yeah, sue, and not a great deal of confidence from either man today that any deal could be reached. really any time soon. >> indeed. i think mr. blankfein hit the nail on the head when he said in reference to the fiscal cliff, that he feels as though the fed has been, in his words, courageous but that there is no remedy from the fed for the nis c fiscal cliff issue if it is not resolved. that to me was a big headline and i hope a lot of congressman and senators out there are listening to that because that to me was the shot across the bow. that to me says if they do not buckle down and get this resolved, do not look to ben bernanke and company to solve the problem. they can't in mr. blankfein's opinion and i think that's an incredibly important warning sign. >> steve leisman joins us now. steve, we were all riveted to you as we were talking to you with the three wise men, simpson and bowles and lloyd blankfein. your biggest takeaway fr
CNBC
Oct 11, 2012 12:00pm EDT
play for 2013. we're going to see china is going to add plenty of support to its economy. add liquidity. stimulus. europe is going to keep progressing. the u.s. will prosper. >> steve weiss, you have a question. what's interesting, stoltzfus's top picks, leadership groups today. >> i'm going to hold your feet to the fire. to me over the next couple weeks there is only one issue. that is has the market discounted earnings. you seem to have equivocated on it. plus you have to have -- you have to believe that is the case if you're in materials. you can't say i'm going to wade into it. i'm looking to buy. they're not going to get much cheaper if that's your view. >> well, related to materials, i think the market is particularly tough on it. but i do think that moving forward, it's something you want to own. so why not start to own it now? as far as earnings on a broad basis, i think the market is -- i mean, is playing this as it comes towards it. >> john, good to have you on the show. thanks so much. >> thanks for having me. >>> the biggest movers in the s&p right now. bertha coom
CNBC
Oct 10, 2012 5:00pm EDT
the improving economy. the numbers aren't that great. in the past the market has looked through this. you do need to be concerned that in the past the market has said policy is going to change this. we will have qe. it is conceivable the market hits a pretty big air pocket. >> you said the risk is that the economy improves. the risk is that your position you don't participate -- >> either you are short or not long enough. everybody that i talk to is saying the economy is terrible which it is and the position for that. nobody is as long as they should be. look at pension funds. they are not in this market. >> that is probably the least risk right now. that is the reason why. you are pretty much priced in here if you look at the economy improving. i think the market has priced in that and also priced into the down side that bernanke is still here. we are caught in this level of 1,400 for a good reason. >> the biggest ipo week since 2010. people are stuffing a lot of paper into the market. i'm talk about across the world, the largest week of activity. a lot of deals coming to market. a
CNBC
Oct 10, 2012 4:00am EDT
economy back into recession. >> you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you big news from around the globe. >>> welcome. "worldwide exchange" exchange. it's hump day. >> yes, it is. although it's been a shorter week for me. doesn't quite work that day. i guess i'm already over the hump. >> plenty coming up on today's program. >> indeed. let's take a look at where we'll be going around the world. >> won't attend imf meetings there as tensions between the two countries intensify. the u.s. government suing the nation's biggest mortgage lender. we'll take a look at how the global industry is faring. then it's off to paris. the stricken car maker is downgraded by moody's a day after demonstrators stage protests. we'll have details from the french capital. and we'll head to new york where there's an appetite for young, profits that is, up nearly a quarter from a year earlier. we'll take a look on a big day for earnings on wall street. and a big week that's coming up. joining us now onset, though, bob mckey. bob, you're here with us, chief economist from independent strategy. i guess le
CNBC
Oct 10, 2012 7:00pm EDT
surround the economy? let's talk. we have mike holland, david goldman and michael farr. michael, i don't care about third-quarter earnings. that is so yesterday's news. i can't stand it. that is just so yesterday's news. it's boring. it's nothing. maybe the guidance has something to say. but the economy is not in bad shape. the economy is not in bad recessionary shape and a political revolution is coming and i want to get your take. after you get through taking profits, michael, what happens next? do you buy them back? >> i think you do a little bit, larry. i think there's certainly time to take some off the table. i'm glad we don't have to pay attention to third-quarter earnings. i've been sweating that. but 2% gdp growth after you get to an almost 10% deficit spend of $3 trillion out of deficit stimulus, it's not robust growth. what happens in this election is important. clearly people have to get out and vote. what's going to happen on this groundwork and infrastructure of our economy over the next four years is going to be crucial for future generations. >>. no, it's not about
CNBC
Oct 11, 2012 8:00pm EDT
, starting with the economy. >> hey, talk about this great recession that they acknowledge as if it fell from the sky. >> he inherited a tough situation. the problem is, he didn't make things better. >> in a key interview today, cnbc provided a forum for the left, right and big business, as the united states speeds towards the fiscal cliff. >> there's nothing that will allow the fed to compensate for a total advocation of fiscal responsibility. >> they believe honestly that no congress could be this stupid and by god they can. >> we should be asking these guys running for president and every guy running for congress, what are you going to do? >> tonight, paul ryan and joe biden will have to explain. now, once again, carl waand bec. >> as the audience starts to take their seats in kentucky we want to run through what will be our pregame tonight for a vice presidential debate that has taken on much more importance than usual. >> on the docket john engler, a key state in the discussion president of the business table, david was director of the office of management and budget under president rona
CNBC
Oct 9, 2012 4:00pm EDT
? >> maria, good hearing your voice. the economy really continues to misfire and you see alcoa is really on the business side in high gear. we obviously in this environment focus on the things we can control. we got one thing there, two major issues were overshadowing it a little bit. a civil litigation case we moved out of the way and mediation, which has been pending there since 1989. that's gone. revenues, $5.8 billion. performance is basically paying off. we're hitting profitability highs. in the upstream business, you actually see when you open the hood that there's strong productivity underneath it and that we're adjusting the structure. that pretty much gives an idea of what's happening in the quarter here. >> a couple points, klaus. you mentioned that settlement with alba. is there any reason to believe there's more to come on this whether or not other lawsuits sort of carry on in the next quarter and the next quarter, or can you categorically say this issue is behind? >> well, the civil settlement is behind us. that's one thing. i mean, the thing that's still open there is basicall
CNBC
Oct 12, 2012 4:00am EDT
1.1 million a day. so over the next five years, sluggish economy will slow oil demand growth and more oil put into the economy. nevertheless, nymex is up because they talk about as well this morning spiking higher anyway. and we've seen brent surprisingly up near 116, 15.60, as well. so the iranian exports hitting a new low in september may just be helping that spike up. >> iea says supply risk whether iran, iraq, are still a fact of life in the oil market. nevertheless it does see opec spare capacity more than doubling in the next five years. >> there's a difference between that five year forecast and the short term. so we'll talk about the oil markets. also plenty more to come on today's show, as well. >> we'll find out why howard mark says gold is not an intelligent investment. we'll also hear from the chief exec tip of infosys. find out why the investors didn't like the latest results. >>> plus we'll catch up with the world trade organization. and later in the show, we let a democrat and republican fight it out on our air over who won last neat's vice presidential debate. but it's
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